Melbourne Cup Tips
Welcome to the complete guide with top Melbourne Cup tips to help you decide which thoroughbred horse to bet on. Often referred to as “The Race That Stops A Nation” and for a good reason, the Melbourne Cup is held annually on the Flemington Racecourse and just like the Grand National does in England, it’s a race that many ‘once-a-year’ Australian punters have a bet on.
However, in more recent years even though this horse race is the most famous one in Australia, it’s also now heavily followed by horse racing enthusiasts all over the world.
As the day of the Melbourne Cup gets closer, if you plan on betting on your favourite horse, you should read our Melbourne Cup tips. We have collected all the Melbourne Cup betting tips, trends and a look at the main runners – putting all this information in one place, so you don’t have to look elsewhere.
Top Melbourne Cup Tips 2020
The burning question is: Who will win the Melbourne Cup this year? If you’re a seasoned horse racing punter, you already know that there is a variety of possible outcomes, and numerous factors take part in it – especially at the Melbourne Cup normally has a big field. In 2019 there were 24 Melbourne Cup runners!
Nowadays, the Melbourne Cup form guide is easily accessible online, which can help you if you’re having doubts about which horse to bet on.
But, if you’re new to the world of horse racing, betting on Melbourne Cup favourites can seem like a guessing game. When you are deciding which horse to bet on, you should go through the Melbourne Cup form guide thoroughly, simply because each detail matters. Plus, key Melbourne Cup trends can often help in narrowing down the runners to a more manageable size.
For example – did you know, a massive 14 of the last 16 Melbourne Cup winners (88%) had raced in the last four weeks and also came from stalls 5 or higher?
These include the horse’s age, pedigree, performance history and career statistics. If you’re looking for the best tips, it’s best to wait until as close to the race day as possible. By then, all the relevant information will be known: the jockeys, the weather, the barriers, the final field and the track conditions.
Melbourne Cup Betting Tips
When you’re trying to pin down your favourite for the Melbourne Cup, take into consideration the following facts, statistics and trends. In recent years, ALL 16 of the last Melbourne Cup winners had won a Group level race in the past, while 14 of the last 16 Melbourne Cup winners had raced at Geelong (2), Flemington (3), Caulfield (4) or Moon Valley (5) last time out. Therefore, but just checking to see which course your Melbourne Cup favourite ran at in it’s last race can be key to ruling out a lot of runners in the race.
We’ve got a list of some of the main Melbourne Cup betting trends below.
Another one of the Melbourne Cup tips is to take into account the weight of the horses. Based on the Cup history, not all the horses that had the top weight actually went on to win the race.
Recently, the Internationals have come to the fore having won 6 of the last 16 Melbourne Cups – with 10 of the last 16 Melbourne Cup winners coming from Australian-based stables. Numerous overseas owners and trainers focus on the Cup months in advance and prepare their horses to make it to the top – and with just over £2.5 million on offer to the winner it’s not a surprise!
Even the Melbourne Cup runner-up gets a cool £600,000, with the third scooping just over £300,000 and even the horses that finishes 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th getting £88,000 each.
Keep in mind that the Melbourne Cup tips 2019/2020 will change if the race conditions change. Punting on this cup requires a lot of preparation and thorough research. Apart from the form of the horses, you should observe the form of the jockeys as well. Of course, follow the weather forecast, as it might influence the performance of some horses.
Melbourne Cup Betting Trends
Below are some trends to factor into your betting preparation for the Melbourne Cup 2020:
- 16/16 – Had won a Group class race before
- 14/16 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
- 14/16 – Raced at Geelong (2), Flemington (3), Caulfield (4) or Moon Valley (5) last time
- 14/16 – Won 8 or fewer races before
- 14/16 – Winners from stall 5 or higher
- 14/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
- 11/16 – Had raced within the last 2 weeks
- 11/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
- 10/16 – Won by a AUS-based horse
- 10/16 – Aged 5 or older
- 10/16 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
- 10/16 – Had raced at Flemington Park before (7 won there)
- 10/16 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
- 9/16 – Horses from stall 10 or 11 placed
- 9/16 – Aged 6 or older
- 8/16 – Won by a 6 year-old
- 8/16 – Had won over 1m7f or further before
- 7/16 – Placed favourites
- 4/16 – Had won just once before
- 4/16 – Won last time out
- 3/16 – Winning favourites
- 3/16 – Had raced in a previous Melbourne Cup
- 2/16 – French-trained winners
- 2/16 – English/Irish winners
- The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 18/1
Of course, it’s also important to follow the weather forecast, as it might influence the performance of some horses.
Keep in mind that the 2020 Melbourne Cup tips will change if the race conditions alter – for example, certainly horses act better on certain ground so if the ground came up soft then this might be seen as a negative for some runners.
Betting on the Melbourne Cup requires a lot of preparation and thorough research. Apart from the form of the horses, you should observe the form of the jockeys and trainers as well.
It’s also a race that attracts the same horses running year-on-year – between 2003 and 2005, the Aussie-trained Makybe Diva won the Melbourne Cup three years in a row, while in more recent times the Charlie Fellowes-trained Prince Of Arran was third in 2018 and runner-up in the 2019 Melbourne Cup – he’s likely to be flown over from England again as he tries to go one place better.
Melbourne Cup Betting Types
No matter if you’re an experienced punter or if you would simply like to try your hand at horse betting, the Melbourne Cup is the perfect place for it. Do your homework before the Melbourne Cup frenzy starts and decide which bet you want to place.
In this section of our Melbourne Cup Tips, we’ll discuss the types of bets you can find on the numerous bookmakers’ sites. Below, you can find the explanations of different Melbourne Cup betting types.
In general, there are two basic types of bets: the traditional and the exotic ones. The traditional bets are the Win and the Place bet, and any other type we mention are referred to as the exotic bets. Now, let’s go into further detail on each of these bets.
This is the most popular and common type of bet. As the name itself says, you place a bet on the horse you think is going to win. In case the horse you backed doesn’t cross the finish line first, your stake is lost.
What you need to do here is pick a horse you believe is going to finish among the first three runners. You will notice that the odds are lower than for a Win bet, but the chances of you winning are greater.
If you opt for the Quinella bet, you are choosing which two horses will finish first and second. The order isn’t important. Of course, there are some variations to this type of bet.
A bet similar to the Quinella, where you have to pick the two horses that will take the first and the second place. The difference is that, when placing the Exacta bet, you must select the horses in the exact order. The stakes are higher, but the payouts could be great if your bet turns out winning.
When it comes to the Exacta bet, you really need to be well-prepared. That’s when our Melbourne Cup tips come in handy.
If you decide to place a trifecta bet, your selection should include horses which will finish the race first, second and third, in that precise order. That bet is also called a Straight Trifecta. Another, preferred among punters and useful version of this bet is the Boxed Trifecta.
If you box your Trifecta bet, that means you can choose three horses, but the order they will finish the race isn’t of crucial importance. We would like to point out that this type of bet costs more than a Straight Trifecta because there is an increased number of possible winning combinations.
You won’t see many newbies trying out the First Four bet. It’s one of the most difficult bets to win, and for a good reason. You choose four horses you think are going to finish in the first, second, third and fourth place.
If you manage to win this bet, you’ve hit the jackpot. The odds will certainly be in your favour.
Of course, there is a variation of this bet as well- a Box First Four. You can choose four or more horses that will finish the race in any order, but still, be in the first four. This alternative increases your chances of winning, as there are multiple possible outcomes.
An each-way bet is a combination of a Win and a Place bet. That means half your stake is placed on the win and the other part on the place. If your horse wins, you’ll receive payouts for both parts of the bet.
On the other hand, if your horse finishes second, third etc. you will still receive the place part of the bet.
One of our best Melbourne Cup tips is to do research before placing any kind of bet. That includes the head-to-head bet. Essentially, you pick two horses that take part in the Melbourne Cup and bet on the one you think will finish the race first.
If you want to ramp up the excitement levels, one of our Flemington Melbourne Cup tips is to bet live. You can place the bets after the race has started. What adds to the thrill of live betting is the fact that the odds change as the horses change positions, so you should monitor them closely.
The Melbourne Cup tips are here to help you out in any way possible, but, ultimately, the decision is yours. It all comes down to you knowing your preferences and deciding which betting option is the way to go.
Melbourne Cup tips – Past Winners
One of the crucial Flemington Melbourne Cup tips is the list of the past winners, so you can see whether the favourites of a certain year made actually won the Melbourne Cup – the last horse win win back-to-back Melbourne Cups was Makybe Diva, who won the race three times between 2003 and 2005.
Jockey Kerrin McEvoy is also a man to look for when deciding on your Melbourne Cup fancy – the Australian-based jockey has won two of the last four runnings of the Melbourne Cup and three in total.
The last UK-based jockey to win the Melbourne Cup was Ryan Moore (2014), while UK trainer Charlie Appleby (Cross Counter, 2018) and Irish handler Joseph O’Brien (Rekindling, 2017) have also saddled Melbourne Cup winners in recent times.
Below, you can take a look at the past Melbourne Cup champions:
|Year||Melbourne Cup Champion||Race Time|
|2019||Vow and Declare||3:24.76|
|2015||Prince of Penzance||3:23.15|
As you can see, in the past 10 years, the best time was achieved in 2014 by Protectionist. But, he isn’t the record-holder. In 1990, a horse named Kingston Rule set a record – 3:16.3, and to this day it hasn’t been broken.
But, who knows what this year will bring. Maybe we’ll witness a new Melbourne Cup record being set.